In the world of superlatives that Apple and only Apple could inhabit, today saw the passing of a milestone—there are now over 1,000 applications available for download from the AppStore. In the mothership's growing panoply of iPhone-flavored statistics, this is a superficially unremarkable feat (we've already accepted the AppStore as unassailable part of the Apple liturgy).
Another number now looms on the horizon, or perhaps it's almost upon us already—10,000,000 iPhones sold. With news that the company shifted 1-million handsets in the 3G version of the device's first three days, Apple put analyst and punter minds at ease—it's a done deal.
However, with endless chatter about apps that rock and / or suck, as well as MobileMe service that's decidedly not pushy, not to mention morbid murmurings about Steve's health (or lack thereof), no one's bothered to discuss when Apple would hit their first full-year sales goal.
Ars Technica has picked up this cudgel, and with the aid of a little back of the matchbook math, informs us that as of July 13 Apple had sold a combined total of 7.124-million 2G and 3G iPhones. They also reckon, what with iPhone demand raging unabated here in the US and the addition of France to the list of countries where the device is available, that Apple has likely sold another 1-million units since then.
Further, with back-to-school buying and Apple promising iPhone availability in another 40-plus countries before year's end, not to mention holiday shopping season upside to consider, the question of just how many will be sold begs an answer, too.
Bank of America analyst Scott Craig has gone on the record to say Apple will sell something well north of 20-million handsets this year.
So, you're a betting man. When will Apple announce that it's sold 10-million iPhones (ie next week?) and how many will the company sell this year?
I'm thinking 25-million for the year and an announcement within the next two weeks...
Verizon will say that it did not take away any customers from them!
20 million I bet this year Posted by Bill on 07/30/08 12:39 AM
They might be right. Moto continues to bleed market share and the other also rans aren't doing any better...
Posted by Guest Poster #2 on 07/30/08 11:55 AM
10Million in calendar year 2008, means you don't count the sales in 2007. So, to hit the 10M mark I'm guessing sometime in Q4.
Posted by Guest Poster #3 on 07/30/08 4:00 PM
Why don't you sponsor a contest? Winner take home a G5, MacPro, or MacbookPro, or some other high end piece of hardware.
Bank of America willing to put up some bank?
Have a contest Posted by Guest Poster #4 on 07/30/08 5:04 PM
Guest Poster #3 is right.
From Apple's Press Releases, they sold 1,703,000 iPhones between January 1st and March 31st, 717,000 between April 1st and June 28th, and "over one million" in the first weekend that the iPhone 3G was released.
That comes to over 3,420,000 iPhones sold so far this year. So Apple needs to sell 6,580,000 between now and the end of the year. Will they pull it off?
On the negative side, looking at it from last year's perspective, there's no chance. According to Apple's Q1 2008 Data, between July and December, Apple sold 3,434,000 iPhones (2,315,000 between October 1st and December 31st, 2007 and 1,119,000 between July 1st and September 31st, 2007). So if they sold the same number of phones as last year in this timeframe, they're coming up about 32% short.
On the positive side, Apple was only selling in the United States last year. This year, the iPhone is selling in a whole bunch of countries and it's a phone that people in those countries would be more interested in (3G). So if Apple sells the same in the United States as last year, but sells foreigners have to make up the difference and by 3,146,000--a little less than half.
But to look back at the downside, the US economy (where most of the iPhones are being sold) wasn't quite so bad last year. Yes, the "price" is halved, but will people be willing to spend $199 for an iPhone when they can get a phone that makes calls--what most people are using their phones for--for significantly less money?
One other potential issue is the new AT&T deal. Last year, I could go buy an iPhone for my loved one, wrap it up, and put it under the tree. This year, I don't know that I can do that (unless I also decide to pay the bill). This might hurt Christmas sales of iPhones compared to last year...
I think that it's going to be close. I think 8 million is easy. 9 million...probably. 10 million...
Posted by Peter on 07/30/08 10:11 PM
I didn't know they had catnip for humans. Some of the figures that are being thrown out for the number of iPhones being sold are so wildly optimistic it almost borders on lunacy. Is there some magic wand that is used to conjure up inventory and production rates? 25 freakin' million iPhones being sold this year! Where are they going to get them from. Gonna call this the multiplication of loaves, fishes and iPhones miracle. I doubt if any of you ever worked at an assembly plant. I guess you all think there's some knob on the assembly line that says FAST, FASTER, WARP SPEED FAST. I honestly don't get it. Might as well put the quality control inspectors on the assembly line just to get iPhones out the door. Insane. Phone rings at Foxconn: Hi. This is Steve Jobs and I need a million more iPhones in two days. OK. No problem? Thanks.
Yeh, right. Dream on.
