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ifo Apple Store, the gold standard for information on and analysis of the Apple Store phenomenon, is running an revealing analysis of the mothership's plans for new brick-n-mortar stores this year. In a nutshell, it's entirely likely that the company will open more than the 24 stores announced by CFO Peter Oppenheimer: Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer has said Apple will have at 125 at year's end, or 24 more store than right now. But this may understate Apple's plans ... The company is already advertising for employees to work at 24 new stores—that means we know all 24 new stores that Oppenheimer forecast for 2005, but with three missing international locations. So, if Oppenheimer is correct, it appears Apple will have at least 127 new stores by year's end. Also, it usually takes from three to six months from posting of jobs to the grand opening of a store. Unless Apple slows down its store development considerably, we'll see 125 stores open by July or early August. Lastly, in previous years a flood of store openings has occurred just before the holiday buying season, preceded by a flurry of job listings posted from May through August. If we are to believe Oppenheimer's forecast ... there will be no new job postings beyond what we already know, creating a huge slow down in Apple's retail effort—just as it's all exploding in success. The logic here would seem unassailable and the conservative number this analysis leads to is 140 outlets by the end of calendar 2005. Read my lips! Whether it's Peter Oppenheimer (no cheap Macs) or His Steveness (no Flash-based iPods) speaking, misdirection is increasingly a tool that Apple is turning to to keep its market directions unclear. The effectiveness of this strategy is apparent in the ongoing successes of the iPod shuffle and Mac mini. Further, the company's growing list of top-shelf retail partners—Best Buy, Target, Walmart—doesn't bode well for traditional independent resellers either. Of course, with sales apparently rising rapidly, the company would be foolish to alienate, shrinking though it is, its independent channel before the full scope of its retail and channel makeover is in place and functioning. What's your take?
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