Woz: Not Buying Google


Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak won't be buying Google shares, the Spartanburg Herald Journal reports.

"I'm not buying," said Wozniak, who is quoted in the article. "Past experience leaves the taste that a few people - never ourselves - will make out the first day, but that it's not likely to appreciate a lot in the near future or maybe even the long future."

Google shares are expected to range from $108 to $135 - exceptionally high by Nasdaq standards. Critics argue that Google's efforts to boost the stock to over $100 per share, virtually ensures that only institutional investors will be able to purchase significant parcels of shares.

Others see Google as another Netscape, which also experienced explosive growth in the mid-1990s, before crashing in the face of Microsoft's concerted, and successful, attempt to dethrone the internet's most widely-used browser.

The most pessimistic prediction? Mitch Kapor, formerly of Lotus Development (yes, Lotus 1-2-3), argues that there's a 75% chance that Google's share price in 18 months will be half what it sold for.

Analysis: Not usually noted for his business acumen, Woz is probably right to play it safe on this one. After all, if the IPO price is that high, has the share price got anywhere to go but down?